Covid-19 briefing

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A tentative recovery in 2021 has been followed by increasingly gloomy developments in 2022 as risks began to materialize. Global output contracted in the second quarter of this year, owing to downturns in China and Russia, while US consumer spending undershot expectations, according to the IMF.

The most immediate economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a sharp rise in commodity prices. Despite their small shares in world trade and output, Russia and Ukraine are key suppliers of essential goods including food, energy, and fertilisers, supplies of which are now threatened by the war, the WTO said.

The baseline forecast is for growth to slow from 6.1 percent last year to 3.2 percent in 2022, 0.4 percentage point lower than in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook.

The WTO expects merchandise trade volume growth of 3.0% in 2022 — down from its previous forecast of 4.7% — and 3.4% in 2023.